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到底买房还是租房划算?看看美国砖家的结论(图) |
| www.sinoca.com 2010-06-15 翟华・新浪博客 [复制链接] 字体：大 中 小 |
虽然世界杯如火如荼，但房价走向也还得关注，很多日常的烦恼还是免不了。比如到底买房还是租房合算?华尔街日报6月3日刊登“砖家”文章回答了这个问题，题目是A FRESH LOOK AT RENT VS. BUY 。说是“砖家”，主要是观点来自美国房地产网站，不一定适合中国的guoqing(很多老外不懂的事，一说guoqing他们一般就不再问了)。这篇文章译文转载如下(英语原文附后)：
不久前住在美国迈阿密滩的一位朋友问我能在这儿租房住到底为什么还要买房呢?买房的时代已经结束。出于工作的原因他很快便搬到曼哈顿并花100万美元在上西区买了个Loft。
请注意一种非常典型的作法。价格上涨时人们想要买入价格下跌时人们变得更加小心。买涨不买跌的作法在逻辑上讲不通。四公布的研究结果提供了一些硬数据。
房地产网站Trulia.com研究了美国的主要房地产市场并提出一个问题：买和租哪一个更划算?根据Trulia网站的计算我的朋友恰恰犯了方向性错误。
Trulia网站在曼哈顿租房这儿的房价太贵。旧金山也一样。在迈阿密买房与租房相比这儿的房价便宜。类似的地方还包括凤凰城、拉斯维加斯及其它大多数房价大跌后相对较低的地方。
这家公司认为年租金的15倍左右是一个交叉点。换言之一个城市的房价约相当于年租金的15倍时或许比较合理这是经验之谈。例如如果你每年花10,000美元租一套房那么买房的成本超过150,000美元时就要考虑再三。华盛顿特区智库经济与政策研究中心(Center for Economic and Policy Research)经济学家贝克尔(Dean Baker)近年对这一问题的研究也得出了类似的结论。他15倍是历史均值。
那么纽约现在是多少倍呢?
Trulia网站纽约现在是32倍左右。在纽约市买一套两居室的共管公寓或联排墅平均高达年租金的32倍左右。高于20倍的其它城市包括西雅图(24倍)、旧金山(22倍)和俄勒冈州的波特兰(22倍)。
Trulia网站另一方面迈阿密的登记价格现在约是年租金的八倍凤凰城约为10倍拉斯维加斯约11倍。
需要明的是：Trulia网站的数据是基于登记价格而不是实际交易价格因此价格可能过高。
此外把交叉点定在租金的15倍或许偏低。
在昨天的谈话中贝克尔这一数值假定你将只在这套房子里住七年。这是人们在一套房屋里通常居住的时间。他如果你住得更久一些房屋买卖的交易费用相对摊薄重要性也降低则购房的吸引力就变大一些。
尽管如此Trulia的分析看来在方向上是正确的。经济与政策研究中心去年所做研究得出了类似的结论：即与租金相比纽约和加利福尼亚沿海地区的房价较贵而那些房价下跌最猛的地方现在看来比较便宜。
Trulia的研究强调了两点。这两点完全正确。
首先房主需要先非常认真地看看当前的现金流。为了当房主而买房毫无意义。如果租金比房价便宜很多要三思而后行。
其次房价跌幅最大的地区现在看来像是置业的好地方而那些看似“最安全”的地方却并非如此。老话：没有“安全”的投资所谓安全只是风险还不明显而已。这条法则一再被人遗忘。
Brett Arends
(编者按：本文作者Brett Arends是《华尔街日报》网络版专栏作家他的专栏《投资回报》帮助投资者分析最新时事并做出相应投资决定。)
A FRESH LOOK AT RENT VS. BUY
By BRETT ARENDS
"Why on Earth would you buy down here when you can rent?" asked a friend of mine in Miami Beach not long ago. "Buying is so over."
He promptly moved to Manhattan for work reasonsand bought a $1 million loft on the Upper West Side.
Note the typical behavior. People want to buy when prices are up, and turn more wary when theyve collapsed. Logically it makes no sense. Research out Thursday adds some hard numbers.
Real estate website Trulia.com has looked at major real estate markets across the country and asked: Is it cheaper to buy, or to rent?
By Trulias math my friend was moving in exactly the wrong direction.
Rent in Manhattan: Home prices there are way too high, says Trulia. (Ditto San Francisco.)
Buy in Miami. And Phoenix. And Las Vegas. And most of the other places that have been flattened by the crash. Homes there are cheap compared to rents.
The cross-over point is about 15 times annual rent, the company believes. In other words, as a rough rule of thumb, homes are probably fairly valued in a city when they cost about 15 times a years rent. So, for example, if youre paying $10,000 a year to rent a place, think twice about buying a home that costs more than $150,000. Dean Baker, economist at the Washington, D.C. think-tank The Center for Economic and Policy Research, came to a similar conclusion in research on the subject in recent years. Fifteen times is the historic average, he said.
So whats the multiple in New York right now?
About 32 times, says Trulia. The average two-bedroom condo or townhouse in New York city costs about 32 times as much to buy as it does to rent. Other major markets over 20 times include Seattle (24 times), San Francisco (22 times) and Portland, Ore. (22 times).
On the other hand Miami list prices are now about eight times annual rents, says Trulia. Phoenix is about 10 times and Las Vegas about 11.
Trulias data need to be taken with some caveats.
Trulia looked at list prices rather than actual transaction prices, so its figures for prices may be too high.
Furthermore drawing the cut-off point at 15 times rents may be on the low side.
Mr. Baker, in conversation yesterday, said that figure assumes that youre only going to stay in your home for the typical seven years. If you stay a lot longer, he says, the transaction costs of buying and selling become less and less important. That makes owning more attractive.
Nonetheless the Trulia analysis seems directionally correct. Work done by the C.E.P.R. last year came to similar conclusions: Namely that markets like New York and the California coast remained expensive compared to rents, while the hardest hit markets now look cheap.
And Trulias research emphasizes two points that are absolutely spot on.
First, homeowners need to look first and hardest at present cashflow. The cult of homeownership made no sense. If renting is much cheaper than buying, think seriously about it.
Second: The markets that have fallen the furthest now look like good places to buy, while those that seem to be "safest" arent. As the saying goes: There is no such thing as a "safe" investment, merely one whose risks are not yet apparent. Its a principle that a lot of people forget time and again.
Write to Brett Arends at brett.arends@wsj.com加拿大华人网 http://www.sinoca.com/
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